Weekly Market Recap - HardAssetsInvestor.com Join Brad Zigler and Matt Hougan every week as they recap the week in the commodities marketplace. More than just stats and numbers, Brad and Matt will give you insights and commentary you just can't find anywhere else. http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com en-us Copyright Hard Assets Investor 10 Thu, 09 Sep 2010 06:21:41 Thu, 09 Sep 2010 06:21:41 webmaster@hardassetsinvestor.com Energy, Agriculture <![CDATA[Ah ... Contango Memories]]> Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -2.3%

The tango has long been known as the dance of love. Around the NYMEX trading ring, the ‘tango—the locals' shorthand for contango—has as many lovers as detractors. Contango is the pricing phenomenon characterized by successively higher back-month prices. For example, a $2.98 contango was evident on Friday when October 2010 WTI crude oil finished at $75.17 a barrel, and January 2011 crude settled at $78.15.

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<![CDATA[Taking The Active Approach To Commodities ETFs]]> K. Geert RouwenhorstK. Geert Rouwenhorst and Kurt Nelson of SummerHaven Index Management, LLC explain how to go beyond passive in commodities exposure.

 

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<![CDATA[The Waiting Game: Commodity ETPs In Limbo]]> Commodity traders aren't used to waiting, but wait they must if they opt for futures alternatives.

 

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<![CDATA[Analysts Win Oil Guessing Game]]> Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -3.1%

After Tuesday's losses in the U.S. crude oil market, bullish sentiment was bolstered by a key industry report about the supply of Texas Tea. Overnight trade in WTI crude was buoyed by the American Petroleum Institute's estimates that indicated crude inventories falling much more than analysts' expectations.

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<![CDATA[Contango’s Dance Steps]]> Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -4.2%

Last week's Desktop piece, "Oil Fundamentals," illustrated the connection between contango in the West Texas Intermediate crude market and U.S. oil inventories. Contango, in case you missed the article, refers to successively higher premia built into the prices of futures reflecting the costs of carrying the commodity until delivery.

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<![CDATA[Oil Fundamentals]]> Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -4.6%

Sometimes readers wonder why so much attention is paid to the weekly oil inventory numbers published by the U.S. Energy Department's statistical service. Truth be told, a lot of trader breath is held awaiting each Wednesday morning release by the Energy Information Administration.

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<![CDATA[Oil Industry Saving For A Rainy Day]]> Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 1.0%

If you're a regular reader of Desktop columns, you've no doubt noted the buildup in oil inventories that's been reported recently. Since the top of the year, an additional 30.5 million barrels of crude have piled up domestically, bringing stocks up to nearly 358 million.

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<![CDATA[Past As Prologue For Oil]]> Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 1.5%

No doubt, Friday was a bad day to be an oil bull. Nearby NYMEX crude futures tumbled $2.27 a barrel, or 2.7 percent, cramming a week's worth of losses into a single day. Oil prices have been skidding since April 6, so traders were eager to jump on the selling train when the Goldman Sachs news hit the wires.

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<![CDATA[Oil Drawdown Surprises Industry, Street]]> Real-time monetary inflation (last 12 months): 1.7%

The streak is over. After 10 straight weeks of inventory-building, oil supplies fell by 2.2 million barrels, according to this morning's report from the U.S. Energy Department.

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<![CDATA[Oil Contango DOES Matter]]> Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -0.5%

Crude oil prices are headed up. But you already knew that, right? In the first quarter of 2010, front-month NYMEX crude prices have risen 5.6 percent. That doesn't sound like a very large gain until you realize that the gain's been accompanied by a 29 percent shrinkage in contango.

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<![CDATA[George Rahal: Contango Has No Effect On Commodity Returns]]> The shape of the futures curve has no impact on commodity returns, says the founder of Vista CTA, LLC.
  • Why contango doesn't matter—but roll does
  • What to look for in an ideal commodity index
  • Why you don't want to be ‘where the action is’
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<![CDATA[BIG Short Position Building In Gasoline]]> Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 0.6%

A record short position has been amassed by commercial accounts in the gasoline market. In sum, a record high 132,416 NYMEX futures and option equivalents are held short by producers, users, merchants and processors.

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<![CDATA[March Madness In Natural Gas]]> Natural gas is in a seasonal upswing—but how does the long-term picture look?
  • Should investors bet on seasonality?
  • How contango has eaten into returns
  • Why more supply has meant less contango
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<![CDATA[Weekend Meat Musings]]> Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): 2.6%

When the skies cleared on Sunday, many backyard grills in our cabin-fevered neighborhood were fired up for the first time this year. The perfume of sizzling beef and pork that wafted over our street got me thinking about this spring's prospects for meat.

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<![CDATA[Ken Armstead: The Active Approach To Commodities]]> The CEO of Absolute Plus Management explains why active beats passive when it comes to commodities.
  • The risks of a passive approach
  • Will we see active commodity ETFs?
  • Can contango continue—and does it matter?
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<![CDATA[Best Year Ever: Commodities Edition]]> We take one final look at 2009—and what it all means for 2010.
  • Going long during contango
  • The top performers
  • Regulatory fire fizzles
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<![CDATA[Kurt Nelson & K. Geert Rouwenhorst On Indexing Commodities]]> We talk to the co-founders of SummerHaven Index Management about the role indexing can play in commodities investing. 
  • The details on their new index
  • The passive vs. active debate
  • The case for commodities right now
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<![CDATA[Ranking 2009’s Commodity ETPs]]> As we head toward 2010, we take one last look back at the year's best-performing commodities—and its worst.
  • Why do returns between ETFs, ETNs and trusts differ?
  • Rankings of 12 different commodities
  • What a difference contango makes
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<![CDATA[Battling Contango]]> Lara Crigger and Dave Nadig examine the new 12-month natural gas ETN. Does mitigating contango make natural gas a buy?


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<![CDATA[Can Gold Supplant Commodities In YOUR Portfolio?]]> Does swapping broad-based commodities exposure for the yellow metal pay off? We crunch the numbers—with some startling results.
  • How endowments approach gold
  • Is gold or GSCI a better diversifier?
  • Why contango matters

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