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The Curious Case Of Gold And Oil
Written by Brad Zigler   
May 18, 2010 12:09 pm EDT
Real-time Monetary Inflation (last 12 months): -2.0%

Lately, the conversations ‘round the pasta table at neighborhood potlucks have been veering toward personal finance and investments. Most recently, the chatter's been peppered with questions about the decoupling of gold and oil prices.

"Aren't gold and oil measures of inflation?" asks Ms. Tortellini Salad. "Then why is gold up and oil down?"

Good question (and good salad).

Generally speaking—and that'd be very generally indeed—gold and oil do move in tandem. But wrinkles in the relationship develop because of differing fundamentals and because of fears. We're living in a fear-driven market now and that's where gold really, um, shines.

As the Greek debt crisis unfolded and fear of Continental contagion spread, capital streamed to safe-haven investments like the greenback and gold. Meanwhile, the prospect of a further meltdown in aggregate demand tilted an already-glutted oil market—for WTI crude, at least -downward.

Put simply, oil got cheap, not only in dollars, but also in terms of gold. Recently, an ounce of gold could buy as few as six barrels of crude to as much as 25 barrels.

 

Gold/Oil Ratio

Gold/Oil Ratio

 

The ratio's most recent high followed six months of frantic de-leveraging and was itself followed by basing at the 14x-15x level as economic fixes were instituted and fears eased.

Take a look at the chart, though. We've had a vertical ascent in the ratio this month. We're pushing on the 18x level now.

The question for traders—and for those lingering around pasta tables—is whether this is a repeat of the late-year 2008 move or just a short-term blip.

The potluck consensus—a thoroughly unscientific and calorie-influenced poll—seems to line up with the blip notion. For now, at least. There are a lot more potlucks on the calendar over the summer months, so we'll keep you posted if there's any change in the backyard mindset.

Feel free, of course, to weigh in with your own. Ratio forecasts or pasta salad recipes, I mean.



 

 
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