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Gold Demand: Not What You Think
Written by Julian Murdoch   
March 08, 2010 12:06 pm EST

 

Last Friday, gold closed up 1.5 percent for the week to end at $1135.20/oz, thanks to a U.S. dollar that couldn't decide if it was strengthening or weakening. Of course, whether the gains continue remains to be seen, but for gold bugs, it seems one thing is certain: Gold demand has never been higher.

Or has it?

Last month, the World Gold Council released its annual supply and demand report on the yellow metal, and it revealed more than a few surprises.

 

2009: A Down Year For Demand

In reality, total gold demand actually fell in 2009, down 11 percent year-over-year. But due to the higher average price per ounce in 2009, the dollar value of gold demand remained roughly the same.

 

Gold Demand 2009

 

As we've previously discussed, demand for gold comes from lots of different places: ETFs, bars and coins, jewelry, dentistry, electronics and some minor industrial uses. And while some applications inherently drive demand more than others, it's interesting to see how demand has shifted from quarter to quarter.

 

ETF Demand: Not As Strong As Before

For starters, mom-and-pop investors in gold ETFs just aren't having that big an impact on gold's overall demand. In fact, so far in 2010, investment into gold ETFs has been sluggish: Bullion held by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE Arca: GLD) has fallen to 1,115.51 metric tons - down 1.6 percent for the year. That's a big change from the 45 percent inventory increase GLD saw last year.

But that 45 percent figure is misleading. Taken as a whole, 2009 was a great year for GLD and other gold ETFs, but quarter-to-quarter, the picture is less clear. As Lara Crigger discussed in last week's Riding The Gold Bubble, the majority of ETF demand hit in the first quarter, as lower gold prices and the hangover from 2008's market meltdown drove hordes of investors toward safe-haven investments. But it didn't last. ETF investment demand dropped precipitously over the next three quarters, and although it still rose 87 percent year-over-year in 2009, ETF demand long term is definitely on the wane:

 

Gold Demand on the Wane

 

Even those folks buying physical coins and bars backed off the gas pedal after the insane demand of the 2008/2009 fall and winter. As ETF investing dropped 67 percent from Q4 2008 to Q4 2009, so too did so-called bar hoarding fall 55 percent year-over-year. Even coin sales, which remain constrained by greater supply concerns, were down 8 percent year-over-year.



 

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Comments (18)

 Wednesday, 10 March 2010 0:47 EST - Posted by Frank

 
It seems to me that the supply of currencies that gold is priced in is growing faster than the supply of gold.

The real question is how many straight quarters has the dollar, pound, euro, etc. been in oversupply?

 Wednesday, 10 March 2010 4:15 EST - Posted by Lou

 
Is this article for real? Does the author even take into consideration that Gold is a currency? Has the author checked out even one chart of Gold vs. ANY OTHER CURRENCY? WOW this is the last time i check out this site!!

 Wednesday, 10 March 2010 6:13 EST - Posted by joe

 
wall of worry, to keep the crowds out, bullish
never trust the murdochs of the world

 Wednesday, 10 March 2010 7:00 EST - Posted by Mark

 
Who is this man that wrote this report and where is he getting his facts? They are innacurate and fail to address the foreign market demand. Vietnam, China, India, Greece, Portugal, Spain, the UK, Iceland, Ireland all produce nothing, what about what they are buying as the junk paper is debased?

 Wednesday, 10 March 2010 8:26 EST - Posted by Dave Nadig

 
All the demand figures come from the quarterly WGC report linked at the top of the article. The demand figures take into account all geographical regions.

"Demand" for gold as a replacement currency is absolutely counted -- as investment. After all, you need to buy gold in some capacity in the marketplace to hold it as a store of wealth. That's counted in that big line called "physical investment."

 Wednesday, 10 March 2010 8:51 EST - Posted by Jaxn44

 
Gold doesn't apply to supply and demand when compared to fiat currencies. The only thing keeping the gold price down is a brainwashed belief that the FED is going to save us. A simple adjustment for inflation alone would but it at $1700-$2400 from it's 1970-1980 prices. I could see gold go down versus oil or food, but paper money....NOPE! If you don't agree, I suggest you buy some US Bonds and go bury the rest of your cash in the ground.....we'll see how well bernanke preserves your life savings over the next decade!

 Wednesday, 10 March 2010 9:57 EST - Posted by Mopan

 
Is the writer's point to advise investment (or just storing money) in other venues such as cash and equities?
For a numebr of reasons, I wish I never put my money into anything but physical precious metals. Yes, I've made some money in stocks.
i certainly wil not invest in crack like the writer muct have done.....

 Wednesday, 10 March 2010 10:16 EST - Posted by Lara Crigger

 
@Mopan and others: We don't give specific investment advice on this site. We just try to report the facts on the ground, and let investors do with the information as they see fit. And in this case, the facts on the ground are that the demand drivers for gold have shifted.

 Wednesday, 10 March 2010 10:48 EST - Posted by Mike

 
Gold demand is down simply because people aren't as scared due to "kicking the can down the road" policies. Folks are selling their scrap right now so they can put food on the table. Eventually the charade will be exposed when the massive amounts of debt are inflated away with massive infusions of "new money". Then demand will explode.

 Wednesday, 10 March 2010 13:15 EST - Posted by OinkyBoinky

 
Of course gold ETF demand is not up - they're NOT buying gold to back the ETFs.

 Wednesday, 10 March 2010 22:22 EST - Posted by tyler

 
I sold all my gold and bought silver.

 Thursday, 11 March 2010 5:59 EST - Posted by holaclive

 
why did comex offer people who wanted to take delivery of gold up to 25% premium to take cash instead. Is there suffient supply?

 Thursday, 11 March 2010 9:50 EST - Posted by robert

 
The fact remains that governments manage money irreponsibly, that there are few ways people can protect themselves, and gold has usually been one of those ways. There is a lot of fluff right now, in opinion pieces. As time passes the above facts will prevail.

 Saturday, 13 March 2010 11:57 EST - Posted by Chang

 
Lou,

I have a hard time with the "gold is currency" argument, since currency is defined as "medium of exchange". Try buying groceries, gas, or ammo with gold, and let us know how that works for ya...

 Saturday, 13 March 2010 16:54 EST - Posted by Jim

 
Hey, Chang, anytime anyone wants to give me gold for groceries, gas, or ammo, I will happily oblige! Would that Gold once again BE a "medium of exchange"!!...By the way, Gold is and always has been a "store of value", and the absolute enemy of fiat currencies and the despots who initiate them! Wake up and smell the coffee!!

 Tuesday, 16 March 2010 16:38 EST - Posted by Chang

 
Jimbo

You may wanna put yer reading glasses on, but I NEVER said it wasn't a "store of value". I simply said gold is NOT being used as currency, at least not in the USA. So do you stock lots of food, fuel, and ammo for resale?
I didn't think so...

 Tuesday, 16 March 2010 17:02 EST - Posted by Jim

 
Chango, when the dollar eventually collapses due to the horrendous overinflation of our money supply, it would be a pretty good idea to have as much physical gold and silver on hand as possible.
Of COURSE gold is not a currency in this country....or in any other country infested with a "Central Bank" such as our "Federal" Reserve! It would be antithetical to their purpose for existance and to the unlimited spending it allows the idiots in D.C. that call themselves our "Representatives"!

 Wednesday, 17 March 2010 9:49 EST - Posted by Chang

 
Jimbo,

You just reiterated my point. Not much of a debate. GL



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