Back in September, Brad Zigler correctly identified the end of copper's 2009 run. What he failed to predict, however, was that shortly thereafter, copper would set a new base from which to launch an Everest-like rise:

For investors who viewed last October not as a time to cash in on the 95 percent they'd already made in 2009, but as an opportunity to hold on even longer, the bet has paid off: Copper's assault on the $3.50/lb level has tacked on an additional 23.8 percent in returns.

But I'll admit, copper right now is a scary chart. I'm not usually one to draw lines on charts and invoke voodoo spirits, but when I look at copper's rise since February ‘09, I can't help but put a trend line on:

And that trend line looks pretty important.

When I last wrote about copper in December, I focused mostly on supply and demand, since, after all, that's what most commodities are really about. Back then, the bearish opinion was that copper inventories were actually pretty fat, and Chinese stockpiling had artificially fueled a run-up in prices. In fact, copper proceeded to rise almost 12 percent before falling back (it's now up a bit less than 8 percent since that article came out). The bull argument, on the other hand, noted that Australia faced major problems in its mining operations, which would in turn tighten up supply.

So where are we today, with the red metal apparently perched above a technical precipice? Is it headed for a breakdown, or a testing of the trend and more good times ahead?

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